Trade ideas thread – European session 17 August 2021

Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts

Risk is keeping cautious on the day as delta variant concerns continue to pose a threat to broader markets in general. US retail sales today is going to be a key barometer for sentiment and a poor report may sound warning bells, adding to recent woes.Invest in yourself. See our forex education hub.

That’s the key risk event to watch on the day, so the action leading up to that could be discarded completely if it doesn’t sync.

US futures are keeping slightly lower today but that follows a resilient recovery in trading yesterday as dip buyers win out, carving out record highs in the S&P 500 and Dow.

Looking at FX, I’m staying away from kiwi trades and taking out my short conviction for AUD/NZD after the news on the Auckland COVID-19 community case.

While the infection may be contained, there is just too much risk and uncertainty involved – at least not to my liking – going into the RBNZ meeting tomorrow.

I still like a divergence play against the aussie but perhaps one musn’t look too far with both AUD/USD and AUD/JPY hanging in the balance, so downside breaks there are ones that I’ll be watching closely to capitalise on – especially if risk sentiment sours further.

What are your views on the market right now? Share your thoughts/ideas with the ForexLive community here.

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